FC MARKET SENTIMENT
58.47
30-Day Change: 1.52%
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Weekly Sentiment

March 8, 2010

Sell-side Sentiment Weakened Last Week

Although it was a great week for the market, sell-side sentiment took a hit last week. Five industry groups were down 1% or more, three were about flat, and only two managed a substantive gain. Nevertheless, sell-side sentiment remains strongly on the positive side.

The impact of the bad weather last month on the Friday employment data was hard to discern, but the results were good enough to allow the market to continue its rise. Also helping last week was better than expected store sales from most of the retailers. It is still not clear whether the trends in employment, consumer spending, or housing are strong enough to justify further increases in the market indexes, but worries about a double-dip recession appear to be behind us.

The market is now pushing the upper end of its trading range of 1,050 to 1,150 for the S&P 500, ending the week at 1,139. The NASDAQ is now at an 18-month high. The near-term market outlook depends mainly on a discernable upturn of substance in employment.

The Stars in Sell-side Sentiment Bear Watching

Over the last month or so, short-term and longer-term trends in sell-side sentiment have been strongest in the Technology and Consumer Services industries. Last week, sentiment for Consumer Services fell by 4%, while Tech sentiment dropped 2%. Consumer Services is right at the bottom of its upward channel, and another week or two of declines could reverse both the short and long-term trends. The situation in Tech is still positive. The decline last week only dropped sentiment to the middle of the upward channel for Tech. Prices in both industries were up last week, but only in line with the overall market.

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